Have We Reached “Peak Pog”?

Sometimes, there’s nowhere to go but up… but is that still the case for Tadej Pogačar? Let’s consider whether we might have already seen “Peak Pog” and what that means for the sport.

The Giro is done for another year. The Spring Classics are a distant memory, and the Tour de France will be upon us before we know. The cycling season seems to be moving with even more speed than usual. But I am struggling to think of any major up-sets this season. So far, so predictable.

Except, and this is controversial I know, but please hear me out, are we seeing “peak Pog”? The last of the very best of Tadej Pogačar? Are his rivals working out how they might just be able to beat him in future?

I think so. Now that would be a major up-set.

Tadej Pogačar is probably the greatest male pro bike rider the world has ever seen. It is a privilege to see him go about his work. Worth every penny of the extortionate fee that HBO charge to watch bike racing. We are lucky to see him ride. His presence dominates every race he enters. His rivals seem resigned to second place even before a wheel is turned.

This year, of 5 one day races he has ridden, he has won 4 of them, including some of the most iconic races in the calendar. He has also won the Overall at the Tour of Romandie. He has an enormous natural ability and a killer instinct, a nose for the win that only Eddy Merckx has ever matched.

But, this spring, have we witnessed peak Pog?

An early season story emerges.

Early in the season, he was posting some stats in training that were sending warning signals to his rivals, bettering his already extraordinary numbers. These were given substance when he won Strada Bianchi again, seemingly with ease.

So confident was he that he could dominate Milan San Remo that he told everyone exactly where he would attack. Despite a fall, and some ripped shorts, when he did go on the offensive it was decisive. Almost.

Everyone except Tom Pidcock and Mathieu van der Poel was dropped on the Cipressa. Pog attacked again, several times on the Poggio. But he couldn’t drop Tom Pidcock, who hung on, matching Pogačar on the breathtaking decent (watch the drone shots from behind a cushion if you have not seen them). The Brit almost won the sprint. For all his power, Pogačar could not drop Pidcock, a rider who is not backed by a superteam as Pogačar is.

At the Ronde Van Vlaanderen, when Pog attacked, his power made it stick. The Ronde is probably the race best suited to his extraordinary talents and he took the win, putting over 2 minutes into Wout van Aert in the process.

At the end of De Ronde, where Wout finished 4th, the microphones caught Pogačar generously congratulating Wout and telling him that he was ‘on the way back’. Accurate and prophetic.

Cobbles chaos, with a close sprint finish.

Paris-Roubaix was a race filled with drama as by turns all the favourites, including Pogačar, had problems. Some recovered. Tadej did, and he and van Aert contested the win with the latter outsprinting the world champion in a dramatic and emotional finale.

Paris-Roubaix is a difficult race for Pog to win with its lack of hills, but it is a brave man who would bet against him, and many expected him to power to the win. An equal number were delighted that Wout crossed the line first.

But it’s not just Wout, either… can Paul Seixas challenge Pog?

The biggest and in my view, the best races come thick and fast in the spring. The circus moved quickly to Liege-Bastogne-Liege where, Pogačar attacked again on La Redoute as he had been predicted to do.

But this time it was not quite as decisive as we have come to expect. As he rode away from the stacked field, opening huge gaps in an instant, the sensational Paul Seixas stuck to his wheel like glue. Repeated accelerations failed to dislodge the 19-year-old (19!).

With only 13kms to go on the Roche aux Foucons climb, Seixas had to give best. All the commentary and all the headlines were about the younger man and less about another extraordinary win achieved by the GOAT. Over the last few years, Pogačar has attacked decisively many kilometres from the line, riding to dominant victories. That did not happen here.

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At the Tour of Romandie, could it be Pogačar wasn’t as dominant as expected?

Pogačar’s first stage race of the year was the Tour of Romandie. The pundits were saying he would win every stage. The flat and very short prologue was not the best place for Tadej to show off his talents. He finished 6th (6th!) to quite some incredulity.

The next stage should have been more to his liking. Sure enough, shortly after the start of the final and only big climb of the day, he rolled to the front and still seated, started to accelerate.

He seemed to be attacking out of boredom, just for want of something to liven up a dull day. It was not one of the big Pogačar attacks. Perhaps it didn’t need to be. But the rapidly improving Lenny Martinez refused to be dropped. The Pog tried a few more attacks. But Lenny was not for budging.

Florian Lipowitz (who was to finish an impressive 41 seconds behind Pog on GC) and then the Dane Jorgan Nordhagen managed to get back on to the Pogačar/Martinez train. This does not usually happen.

As an aside, I imagine that Jonas Vingegaard will be absolutely delighted to see his fellow Dane and one of his possible Tour de France mountains domestiques close Pogačar down like this.

The Pog still won the sprint to cement his lead and followed this up the next day with a bunch sprint win. Is there nothing he cannot do? Sprinting for bonus points again on Friday’s stage 3, he just missed out.

I fully expected him to dominate Saturday’s Queen Stage and Sunday’s last stage up to the ski resort of Leysin and to come home with a decisive GC win, which he did. He didn’t need to do any more, but what happened to that “crush the competition”, win everything, ‘cannibal like’ approach to all his racing?

What could this mean for the Tour de France?

I hope that come the Tour de France, we will see a fully fit and ready Jonas Vingegaard, go up against the absolute best the Pog has to offer. That should be an epic scrap.

But his competitors are seeing what we are all seeing and drawing their own conclusions. While I think we will see Pogačar continue to dominate for a few years to come, just maybe, he might not be quite so all conquering. Fewer “Pogačar Processions” can only be good for the sport! I can’t wait for the Tour.

What do YOU think about Pogačar’s dominance in cycling? Will he crush the competition at this year’s Tour de France? Let us know what you think in the comments or on social media! ★