Do Early Season Results Actually Mean Anything?

Cycling fans are on the edge of their seats waiting for the 2025 road season. Although many might argue that the season doesn’t start until Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, the pros have already treated us to a number of exciting contests throughout February. But will the trends continue? Let’s discuss just how much January and February racing can tell us about the rest of the pro season — including the Tour de France.

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The “early season” is filled with expectation.

Waiting for Omloop to tune into cycling broadcasts? Well, you might have missed a few of the season’s most exciting races!

It’s a common misconception that the peloton waits for warm weather in the northern hemisphere to get back on their bikes. The men’s professional cycling season kicks off in January with races like the Tour Down Under and Cadel Evans Road Race in Australia. These races are followed by February events in the Middle East, including the UAE Tour and Tour of Oman. And the riders don’t shy away from a little cold: remember O Gran Camino in 2023 (pictured below)?

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Many of these races aren’t household names. Don’t get me wrong: these have their own prestige… and a few UCI points for the winners, too. However, they primarily serve as preparation for the European calendar, which begins with Omloop Het Nieuwsblad at the beginning of March.

And hey, as a spectator, there’s nothing wrong with waiting until the classics season is in full swing to start watching. But early season matchups can offer their own valuable insights into the riders’ forms and team dynamics heading into the major races.

Strong performances are good indicators of winter training and can forecast success in the bigger objectives to come. It’s not all set in stone, either: early races can also be a chance for teams to test new equipment and make sure their teams are working synergistically. In many ways, these races are test runs for the tools and tactics every team will need to rely on until Il Lombardia in October.

There is a big caveat. Performances are highly dependent on peaks, or when each rider’s individual fitness is at the very best. Many top riders deliberately peak later in the season to match their primary goals, like the spring classics or Grand Tours. And they use the early races purely for training. After all, it’s difficult to replicate the experience of riding in a large peloton in training camps.

Have you ever heard the commentators talking about a rider “getting some miles in the legs?” This is exactly what they’re talking about!

Why build the hype?

If we don’t know whether the sport’s stars are taking their early season schedule seriously, it can be hard to predict their performance.

Despite this, cycling fans all around the world tune into these early races with an open mind… and a careful eye. After all, analyzing every detail, from equipment to team tactics to individual form, is the only way to find some clues about the upcoming season. Just don’t make up your mind too quickly!

What have we learned so far about 2025? Let’s take a look at last week’s first big outing: the Volta ao Algarve.

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A proving ground in Portugal.

The Volta ao Algarve is a five-day stage race held each February in Algarve, a southern region of Portugal. The race typically features a mix of sprint stages, puncheur-suiting reduced bunch finishes, and a decisive climb at Alto do Malhão. For riders who attend, it serves as an early-season test while providing warmer weather than northern Europe.

This has happened throughout recent editions of the race. Last season, Remco Evenepoel pulled off a overall win by finishing the final mountain stage to Alto do Malhão neck-in-neck with his main rival for the race, Dani Martínez. The Belgian capped off a week where he had already built an advantage in the time trial, mirroring his relatively strong TT performances later in the season.

What about this year? 2025’s edition took place last week, running February 19th through 23rd. The route follows a familiar pattern with stages suited to different riding styles. This year, a mountainous time trial marked the decisive final stage, attracting climbing TT specialists to line up at the start.

As predicted, the race attracted an exceptionally strong field, headlined by Visma Lease-a-Bike teammates Jonas Vingegaard and Wout van Aert in their season debuts. Vingegaard faced stiff competition: his former teammate, Primož Roglič, now riding for Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe, as well as Portugal’s native João Almeida. The presence of these high-profile riders has elevated excitement for the race beyond its typical early-season status.

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What does Vingegaard’s win in Algarve tell us?

Okay, so, disclaimer: it’s easy to read a lot into this race.

Stage 5’s time trial proved decisive. Vingegaard put a stamp on both the stage and the overall GC, which had gone mostly uncontested throughout the previous stages. Van Aert also demonstrated impressive early-season form with a strong second place, batting well above his average on a climbing TT. This performance showcased the strength of the VLAB squad — these guys definitely came to make an impression! Meanwhile, Roglič struggled. His post-race interview appeared to brush aside concern. Still, it’s more difficult now to picture him as a true contender in the Tour de France against an on-form Vingegaard.

Or is it?

Neither Vingegaard nor Roglič have completed any altitude training camps so far this year, and their peak forms remain months away along with their season goals (we’ll come back to that in a minute.) Van Aert’s strong showing makes more immediate sense given his recent cyclocross campaign. Keep in mind, though: even his current fitness level may not indicate his potential in the classics this year.

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In the UAE Tour, a similar display of dominance played out this week.

Is all of this to say that the early season races mean nothing in the grand scheme? Not necessarily. Many miles away from Portugal, a similar display of dominance played out in the UAE Tour, where the (shall we say) “local favorite” Tadej Pogačar crushed the competition. His week including winning two stages and riding for over 100 kilometers in the breakaway just for laughs.

Can we definitively say now that Pogi will control the 2025 season just like he did for most of 2024? Don’t be too quick! His early successes mirror Vingegaard’s, but February’s results rarely predict July’s outcomes. While both riders look strong now, the seven-month gap before the Tour de France leaves ample time for form fluctuations, training adjustments, and unexpected developments.

Will we see the evenly-matched Pogačar-Vingegaard battle that we missed last July? The true test of this rivalry still awaits in the mountains of France.

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So, what’s next?

The peloton now splits toward different objectives as the classics season approaches.

Van Aert turns his full attention to the spring classics, starting with Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. While it’s likely that we’ll see him as Vingegaard’s helper in Le Tour, he’ll have a shot at his own ambitions for now, including his coveted Paris-Roubaix victory. Roglič takes on the ambitious double of the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France, while Vingegaard focuses solely on contesting his third Tour title. Pogačar aims for the Tour before targeting the Vuelta a España.

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More warm-up races lie between now and the Tour de France for these stars. Keep your attention on the double feature of Tirreno Adriatico and Paris-Nice in March, followed by the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya and the Criterium du Dauphine. One-day races often targeted by GC riders include Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Right now, Vingegaard is aiming for Paris-Nice and Catalunya, while Pogačar will ride a reduced classics schedule including Strade Bianche and Milano-Sanremo. It may be some time before these stars meet head-to-head.

Quiz: How Well Do You Remember the 2024 Road Racing Season?

Early-season dominance from familiar names might suggest a predictable year ahead. But history warns us against these assumptions. A lot can happen, and the cycling calendar’s length and complexity bring countless variables into action.

So let’s sit back, relax, and enjoy the show — for now. These early season races serve better as interesting data points than predictors. We aren’t ready for any season-long supremacies just yet!

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Have you been watching the racing action in February? Let us know on Bluesky or in the comments below! ★