Jonas Vingegaard’s Big Question Mark

Jonas Vingegaard’s 2024 cycling season got off to a rocky start. Initial wins at early season races demonstrated he’d be ready for the Tour de France. But a terrible crash in Itzulia: Basque Country had everyone worried he might not be cycling in July at all. Has he bounced back after the challenging first week of the Tour de France? Let’s find out.

Despite a serious crash in April that caused broken ribs, a fractured collarbone, and lung damage, Jonas Vingegaard has returned to France to defend his Tour de France title. The Danish rider returned to training within a month after his accident and appears confident in his ability to perform. With strong team support and renewed motivation, he looks poised for another tilt at yellow.

But just how much of a chance does Vingegaard have in this year’s edition? With a stacked roster of competitors and lingering doubts about his recovery, the defending champ is marked by a looming question mark. What do we think? Let’s dive in and consider his performance thus far in the Grand Depart from Florence and the stages beyond.

Jonas Vingegaard was a stage race sensation in 2022 and 2023.

Jonas Vingegaard is 27 years old and hails from the northern region of Thy in Denmark. Over the past few years, his hard work and talent have propelled him to the top of the peloton. He has become a force to be reckoned with as the defending champion in this year’s Tour de France.

Before 2022, Vingegaard was a talented climber on the rise, but not quite a Tour contender. He’s been riding with Jumbo-Visma since 2019, showing promise but failing to capture any major wins for the Dutch squad. His 2020 Vuelta a España debut showed he was capable of competing on the Grand Tour stage. Then, in 2021, he made a breakthrough at his first Tour de France. His second-place finish, right behind defending champ Tadej Pogačar, made people see him as a serious threat.

In 2022 and beyond, things took a serious turn for Vingegaard’s racing career. He wasn’t just support within Jumbo-Visma anymore, but was a co-leader on the same level as Primož Roglič. He was a worthy competitor for Pogačar, snatching the yellow jersey from him after a tactical masterclass at Col du Granon. The momentum of his 2022 and 2023 Tour de France general classification wins has carried him to more victories in stage racing, especially during the 2023 season. He and his team remained dominant throughout the racing calendar.

A horror crash in the Basque Country comes as a shock.

Prior to his accident in April, Vingegaard’s 2024 season hinted at a strong defense of his Tour title. His participation in key races like O Gran Camiño and Tirreno-Adriatico suggested he was on track for peak form by July. He showed a total of five stage wins and two general classification wins in the early 2024 season. His trajectory of winning almost every race he contested was very promising for his Tour performance. This was especially true as his main competitor Tadej Pogačar aimed to contend (and tire himself out) at the Giro d’Italia.

Disaster struck Vingegaard’s Tour de France hopes in April during a chaotic stage of the Tour of the Basque Country. With roughly 35 kilometers remaining, a mass crash sent riders sprawling across the pavement. The accident involved other main GC rivals, including Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel. Vingegaard was one of the unluckiest, sustaining significant injuries and abandoning the race. Reports detailed broken ribs, a fractured collarbone, and even lung damage. His condition was so unstable that he was not able to return home for weeks after the accident. Instead, he was kept in a Basque hospital for his intensive care. The severity of the crash cast a long shadow over his ability to compete in the Tour de France, just a few months away at that time.

Read more: Jonas Vingegaard suffers broken collarbone, ribs, Evenepoel fractures clavicle, scapula in Itzulia Basque Country crash (CyclingNews)

However, Vingegaard was back on the bike relatively quickly. Danish cycling paparazzi hoped to catch a glimpse of their superstar in May. This was only a little more than a month after the accident occurred. This rapid improvement, likely coupled with his own ambitions, fueled the decision for Vingegaard to captain Visma-LAB’s Tour squad. It appeared he wouldn’t go down without a fight.

Strong team support in Vingegaard’s corner… but is it enough?

Just as in years past, Vingegaard is supported by a formidable Visma-LAB team at the Tour de France. Notably, Wout van Aert, a past stage winner and superstar domestique, returns from his own injury in the earlier cobbled classics season. He was crucial to Vingegaard’s 2022 win, serving as an extremely valuable helper in many mountainous and flat stages. Last year, his assistance of Vingegaard’s title was cut short when he departed the race early. This was because his wife was expecting their second baby. However, he has already moved into a key helper role this year as well, despite his own tenuous form post-accident.

The team was also intended to include Vuelta a España winner Sepp Kuss. However, he was forced to cancel his appearance due to struggles with post-COVID complications. Instead, Paris-Nice victor Matteo Jorgenson and experienced riders Jan Tratnik and Wilco Kelderman provide Vingegaard with a strong foundation. Christophe Laporte, the European road racing champion, rounds out Vingegaard’s squad and appears to have taken a van Aert-like role in protecting the GC leader thus far.

Team leadership seems less certain about Vingegaard’s form.

However, Visma-LAB team leadership has been relatively evasive about Vingegaard’s chances. Sporting director Merijn Zeeman has shared very tempered expectations for third consecutive Tour victory. “He is coming back from a serious injury,” Zeeman said in an interview. “We are being cautious because he has not been able to race.” Tiesj Benoot, another crucial domestique, made waves before the start of the Tour by saying that the team did not expect Vingegaard to make the podium. Vingegaard himself says he is simply happy to be able to compete. This avoids setting any concrete expectations for his performance.

Keep in mind, these statements are nothing new from Visma Lease-a-Bike. The team is notorious for underselling their riders’ forms before major stage races! For example, before Wout van Aert’s monster performance in 2022, he cited his lingering knee injury. That did not seem to manifest on the roads of France. Tactically, the team stands to gain nothing by revealing anything about their riders’ forms before the Tour begins. In many ways, we should expect nothing less from Visma-LAB. They are known for their tactics on and off the bike. But this lack of transparency also makes it difficult to understand their true expectations for Vingegaard’s performance.

A strong first week for Vingegaard, but cracks emerge.

The 2024 Tour de France’s opening week did not disappoint! The race kicked off with a wonderful Grand Depart in Florence, Italy. An unusually challenging opening stage offered a chance for specialists. Romain Bardet was crowned as the first yellow jersey wearer of the year after an exciting successful breakaway attempt. Hilly terrain throughout the opening stages offered opportunities for climbers and punchers alike. Some early breakaway attempts spiced things up, keeping the peloton on high alert. The first week lacked many of the grueling climbs that truly test the GC contenders. Instead, sprint specialists like Biniam Girmay surprised everyone with their victories. With week two upon us, the anticipation builds as the peloton heads towards more mountainous stages.

What about Jonas Vingegaard? There were only three stages that really tested the defending champ. However, they gave us a lot of insight into his form, tactics, and what his approach should be going forward. The key takeaways? While Vingegaard is looking strong, there were enough problems that he will need to be tactically careful to stay in podium contention through the coming weeks.

The first mountain day was not ideal for Vingegaard.

Stage 4, featuring the well-known climb to the Col du Galibier, lived up to its billing as the first major mountain test. Tadej Pogačar and UAE Team Emirates dominated, with Pogačar launching a blistering attack on the descent to claim the stage win and the yellow jersey. While Vingegaard stayed in the leading group, Pogačar’s impressive display served as a significant warning shot to all his rivals.

While Vingegaard was able to follow all mountain attacks, his weakness showed during the non-technical portions of the subsequent descent. There, he lost time to Pogačar, Evenepoel and Roglič, putting him in fourth on the stage. Vingegaard is not a strong non-technical descender due to his small size and relatively light weight. This means that bulkier competitors like Evenepoel easily outpace him on the straightaway mountainside. Vingegaard also appeared very winded and exhausted after the stage. However, he seemed relaxed about the performance in interviews, suggesting he expected to lose up to two minutes on the stage. Given Visma-LAB’s aforementioned propensity for underselling, I will leave interpretation of this up to the reader!

Vingegaard held his own in the time trial against strong competitors.

The first time trial of this year’s Tour de France, held on Stage 7, wasn’t the ideal performance for Vingegaard. The Dane managed a respectable fourth place, just 37 seconds behind stage victor Remco Evenepoel. However, all three of his GC rivals finished ahead of him. The performance keeps Vingegaard’s yellow jersey hopes alive, as he continues to sit at third overall in the GC standings. Despite losing additional time to Pogačar, Vingegaard remained positive in post-stage interviews.

Nonetheless, it is easy to see a stark difference between this performance and last year’s Tour de France ITT. In that race, Vingegaard won by a significant margin and put over a minute into all of his closest GC rivals. It is unlikely we will see that kind of performance from Vingegaard this year. Sadly, that includes in the final TT from Monaco to Nice. However, it appears Vingegaard can hold his own on the time trial bike despite deficits from his prior form.

Surviving the gravel day was a big win for everyone in the GC fight.

Chaos reigned supreme in the Tour de France’s stage 9 gravel adventure. Riders were forced to dismount and push bikes up steep inclines early on, a sight rarely seen in road racing. Technical descents and constant jostling for position on the loose terrain led to crashes and mechanical mishaps throughout. A breakaway group managed to stay ahead until the closing kilometers. Attacks and counter-attacks in the final stretch ultimately saw Frenchman Anthony Turgis claim a surprise victory. Despite some earlier drama wherein Roglič was separated from the others in a chasing group, all of the GC favorites finished in one group and received the same overall time for the stage.

For Vingegaard, the real drama started after the stage. Both Pogačar and Evenepoel criticized Vingegaard for refusing to help them during an attack. Instead, the Danish rider preferred to return to the strength of his team. This failed to deal a killer blow to Roglič, who was suffering in the back of the peloton.

For Vingegaard, this was likely a tactically smart move. However, it raises questions about how much he will rely on his own abilities versus his team. He may ask them to do most of the “heavy lifting” of knocking out his GC rivals later on. Thus, we may not see as many head-to-head solo battles between Vingegaard and the others. Unfortunately for Vingegaard, Pogačar can play that game as well. His stacked roster of all GC-ready guys will be even more of a threat if Vingegaard finds himself isolated with them on a future climb.

Read more: Visit our Grand Tours category for more articles about the 2024 Tour de France.

Where should Vingegaard go from here?

Let’s talk tactics. Vingegaard’s dominance in stage races, especially long ones like the Tour de France, hinges on climbing and time trialing. He traditionally excels on the longest, most grueling mountain ascents, with both endurance and explosiveness on steep gradients. While not a pure specialist, his time trial performances also solidify his strength in GC, allowing him to gain valuable seconds on rivals against the clock.

However, if Vingegaard is weak on TT, he needs to make bolder and more decisive moves on later mountain stages. This includes Stage 14 and Stage 15 featuring tough climbs in the Pyrenees. Or the queen stage of Stage 19, which finishes at the Isola 2000 summit. If Vingegaard can take time on his rivals on these climbs, he stands a good chance of solidifying his podium position. Tomorrow’s Stage 11 also includes several minor climbs and could be a chance for GC moves. The punchier terrain likely suits Pogačar and Evenepoel more than Vingegaard. Following attacks is just as important for Vingegaard. If he isn’t up to the test, it could mean the end of his GC ambitions.

Read more: Tour de France 2024 Route Preview: It’s Climby! (Strava)

Will Vingegaard’s form improve over time?

The duration of the Tour de France is another factor. Vingegaard has typically become stronger over three week races. Maintaining his form — or even improving it — during the third week of racing gives him a big competitive advantage against his rivals. Some, like Evenepoel, are known to cook themselves on challenging stages and switch to a stage-hunting approach. This could give Vingegaard a chance to move up as well. But whether he will ride into form in light of his accident is an open question. In this case, it’s not his injuries that pose a problem, but his lack of sustained training. In a worst-case scenario, Jonas may decide to leave the Tour de France before or during the third week. This would allow him to preserve his body and focus on other goals for the remainder of the season.

Read more: ‘You don’t win the Tour de France with words’ – A clash of styles in Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard’s endless duel (CyclingNews)

Closing thoughts.

There is a big question mark hanging over Jonas Vingegaard, even after his performance in the first week. Where will he go from here? As the Tour de France enters its last two weeks, all eyes are on him. If he navigates the remaining stages intelligently, he can reach Nice in contention for the podium — or the yellow jersey. That means using his team and tactics to effectively to conserve energy and respond to attacks. Whatever the case, the battles sure to play out over the coming weeks will be an unforgettable part of this year’s already amazing Tour de France!

Read more: 22 Photos (and Stories) from the 2024 Tour de France

Are you rooting for Jonas to make a comeback this year? Let us know what you think in the comments! ★