Is This Finally Primož Roglič’s — and BORA-Hansgrohe’s — Year?

For the Tour de France, Primož Roglič is surrounded by support from his new team. But will BORA-Hansgrohe’s tactics be enough to clinch the yellow jersey? I think so. Here’s why.

BORA-Hansgrohe (now officially Red Bull-BORA-Hansgrohe) has made it clear: Primož Roglič is their sole captain for the 2024 Tour de France. With a team built around his climbing prowess and time trial strength, all of their hopes rest on Roglič’s shoulders. Team boss Ralph Denk has made no secret that his expectations for the Tour, and frankly the entire 2024 season, revolve around Roglič. Starting from the very first day, the team tactics will likely be to protect Roglič, prevent him from crashing, and give him every opportunity to challenge his competitors for the yellow jersey. But will it (finally) be enough?

Reader, this author thinks it will. Primož Roglič will win the 2024 Tour de France.

It may be a bold prediction, even for a race where almost every main GC contender has an asterisk next to their name. But what gives Roglič the “special sauce” to win this year? Let’s talk about it!

Who are Roglič’s rivals for GC this year?

There is no question that Roglič will have many familiar GC rivals in the peloton from the very first day of the race. Each of his competitors’ individual potentials depends on talent, preparation… and good old fashioned luck.

Roglič’s Slovenian countryman Tadej Pogačar arrives at the 2024 Tour de France with a fresh Giro d’Italia victory in his legs and some nascent history-making in his sights. The Giro-Tour double is a daunting feat, and there are a lot of questions about Pogi’s recovery. Will he come to France in his best form? However, UAE Team Emirates prioritizes his potential win by sending possibly the most stacked squad of any team. This includes João Almeida, Juan Ayuso, and Marc Soler. Each of these riders can contend for stage and overall wins in their own right. The fact that this is a squad of all GC guys may ultimately be their undoing. UAE’s wacky race tactics have been the biggest problem for them in the past.

Jonas Vingegaard‘s 2024 Tour de France campaign remains shrouded by doubts. Roglič’s former teammate is the defending champion of the yellow jersey. However, a crash earlier this year in Itzulia Basque Country forced him out of key mid-season preparations. It also raised questions about his fitness. While Visma Lease-a-Bike hasn’t ruled him out, Vingegaard’s ability to defend the yellow jersey depends heavily on his recovery. His climbing talent and winning track record are undeniable, and he will have the support of Roglič’s former best domestique, Vuelta winner Sepp Kuss. Downplayed expectations surrounding Vingegaard may be his biggest factor in pulling out a surprise defense of his title in Nice.

Remco Evenepoel arrives at the 2024 Tour de France as a young rider with a point to prove. His exceptional time trialing skills can’t be ignored by his rivals. In fact, he has gone head-to-head against Roglič in the past, especially in their 2023 pre-Giro meetings. However, questions surround his climbing form after a disappointing performance (also against Roglič) at the Critérium du Dauphiné. Will Evenepoel actually challenge the established GC contenders? Soudal-Quick-Step might choose to focus on stage wins depending on Evenepoel’s performance in the early mountain stages. He will be supported by good-ish-GC-guys-turned-mountain-domestiques like Mikel Landa, a new transfer for the team this year.

What about the rest of the peloton?

Of course, random GC guys from other teams who have been looking pretty good this season will be trying to break into a podium position. This is especially true if Roglič crashes out and Evenepoel chokes in the first week. Threats include Carlos Rodríguez and Egan Bernal from Ineos Grenadiers, Simon Yates from Jayco-Alula, Richard Carapaz from EF-Education EasyPost, and Pello Bilbao from Bahrain Victorious. Everyone seems to want to be an underdog this year. These guys are the real underdogs in a stacked field of GC heavy-hitters.

Read more: These Are the Yellow Jersey Contenders at the 2024 Tour de France (Bicycling magazine)

Will Roglič crash?

It’s time to address the elephant in the room. Roglič’s history of crashing out of the most important races of the year can’t be ignored! In fact, Roglič has crashed out of the 2021 and 2022 Tour de Frances, as well as the 2022 Vuelta. In fact, his bad luck with crashing is one of his defining characteristics as a rider. Strangely enough, it is also one of the reasons he is such a likeable figure within the peloton.

Read more: Sad Story, Huh? (Derailleur)

Predicting crashes in cycling, a sport inherently fraught with risk, is an impossible feat. While Roglič has a history of frequent Grand Tour crashes, finishing the race intact still remains a possibility for him. BORA-Hansgrohe will undoubtedly prioritize keeping him upright, employing tactics like good positioning and teammate support to minimize risks. Flat stages with bunch sprints are more prone to chaos. Mountain descents and their narrow roads present their own set of challenges. Unfortunately, Roglič has been known to crash in both of these situations. The gravel stage debuting in this year’s edition of the Tour is an additional curveball. Whether or not Roglič can contend with the rocky sectors that will challenge even the most savvy bike-handlers in the peloton remains to be seen.

What other challenges are the GC competitors up against in the 2024 Tour de France?

The 2024 Tour will be a climber’s paradise with 7 grueling mountain stages. Expect epic battles to play out in the Alps and Pyrenees. With four mountaintop finishes, the yellow jersey will likely be decided in these toughest stages.

The mountaintop finishes in the 2024 Tour de France are concentrated in the second and third weeks. While there might be some hilly stages in the first week heading out of Florence, the truly challenging climbs are clustered towards the latter half of the race. All GC contenders will focus on managing their energy through the first week. Then, the real battle for yellow can unfold in the mountains.

Read more: Your stage-by-stage guide to the 2024 Tour de France (Escape Collective)

But don’t forget the time trials! The 2024 Tour de France features two time trials, totaling 59km in total distance. Each has the potential to shake things up in the general classification. The first individual time trial, at 25km, offers a chance for strong rouleurs to gain some early time advantages. However, the real drama is likely to unfold on the final stage, a 34km time trial from Monaco to Nice. This long, demanding course will heavily favor time trial specialists. If the race arrives with a close fight for GC supremacy, it could be a major factor for the overall win.

Read more: Want more Tour de France analysis and perspectives? Check out our latest posts here.

What is Roglič’s big advantage?

While Roglič might not be the absolute lightest climber, his combination of strength, explosiveness, and tactical intelligence makes him a force to be reckoned with in summit finishes. He recently dominated in the Dauphiné, winning two mountaintop finishes (Le Collet d’Allevard and Samoëns 1600) and taking the overall victory. This bodes very well for his climbing form in the Tour.

Read more: ‘It was close’ – Primož Roglič on surviving attacks to win Critérium du Dauphiné (CyclingNews)

However, it is impossible to ignore Pogačar’s own Giro d’Italia mountaintop victories. These also showcased his aptitude for these types of climbs. While his team likely played a role in positioning him for success, Pogačar’s solo wins (of which there were several) speak to his exceptional climbing talent and aggressive racing style.

What about in the time trials? As a former Olympic champion, Roglič will have a strong presence in the TT — if his form is good. However, the ghosts of the past still linger. Pogačar’s victory in 2020 shows how things may go really wrong for Roglič even as late as the final day of the race. Throw in the wild card of Evenepoel, a powerful time trial competitor in his own right. The GC competition of the 2024 Tour will not be decided by solo efforts, either on the mountaintop or the TT bike. Nevertheless, the time trials are shaping up to be a major battleground for all of the main GC contenders.

Does Roglič have a true match for his former domestique Sepp Kuss in the mountains?

Sepp Kuss will be a key lieutenant for Vingegaard at the Tour de France. But Vingegaard’s recent injuries cast uncertainty over his form and how much support Kuss will ultimately be able to provide. While Kuss was always key to Roglič’s victories, such as the 2023 Giro d’Italia, there are replacements in BORA-Hansgrohe’s predicted Tour squad.

Aleksandr Vlasov

Vlasov is something of a wildcard when it comes to supporting Roglič. While a skilled climber with relatively strong showings earlier this season, his ambitions for personal glory could clash with a pure domestique role. His potential could lead to a more flexible strategy from BORA-Hansgrohe if things go wrong for Roglič. In addition to serving as a domestique, Vlasov can chase stage wins or even back himself for a podium finish. The team will likely conserve him until it is certain Roglič will finish the race.

Jai Hindley

Hindley is another asset for the team, an Australian rider who impressed at the 2023 Tour de France with his day in the yellow jersey. While Roglič will be the team’s main GC contender, Hindley shouldn’t be overlooked as a helper. He’s a talented climber, evidenced by his previous stage wins and his own Giro victory in 2022. He could be a major factor in the mountains for BORA-Hansgrohe and their leader.

Read more: Jai Hindley: We’ve got a pretty sick team for the Tour de France (DNLBenson’s Substack)

Sergio Higuita

Finally, Higuita may be an interesting option as a mountain domestique for Roglič. While known for his own stage hunting prowess, Higuita has shown he can work for the team. His own ambitions might need to be curbed for him to fully commit to a domestique role. If he embraces the challenge, his climbing ability and tactical awareness will be valuable tools for Roglič in the high mountains.

So then… why will Primož Roglič win the 2024 Tour de France?

Perhaps this article has done little to convince you that Roglič has a special advantage for winning this year’s Tour. That’s okay! In reality, Roglič does not have better domestiques or individual talents than his competitors.

But he should win for the narrative.

The narrative of cycling captivates viewers for multiple reasons and is one of the most special aspects of the sport. The grueling nature of a Grand Tour pushes athletes to their physical and mental limits. Fans feel the drama play out across stunning landscapes and admire their sporting heroes for every little victory — or hard-lost defeat. The human stories of overcoming challenges, both as an individual and a team, resonate on a deeper level than sheer “watts per kilo.” As I have written about here before on CyclingScoop, all the stats and analytics in the world can’t replace a good story.

Read more: This is How Netflix’s Unchained Missed One of the Best Moments of the 2023 Tour de France (CyclingScoop)

The outcome of a Grand Tour can be unpredictable and exciting until the very last day. Never has that been more true than this year’s edition of the Tour de France, which trades the iconic promenade on the Champs-Élysées in Paris for a final time trial stage with beachside views in Nice. Where better for Roglič to avenge his 2020 time trial loss than on a stage which begins in his hometown of Monaco? Where better for the viewers to take in scenic sights of the sea as Roglič pedals his way to a victory that is narratively satisfying for everyone… probably including Roglič himself?

After all, Primož Roglič has made it clear in every interview: the Tour de France is his number one goal this season. Really, it’s his number one goal for the rest of his career. And with the unquestioned support of his new team, he can finally do it. As Kate Wagner, that great Roglič whisperer, has written, there is no more La Planche des Belles Filles, and the circle of longing is finally closed. All that awaits is the yellow jersey. And for the first time in a long while, it actually feels within reach.

Read more: Primož Roglič and the closed circle of longing (Escape Collective)

Do you think Primož Roglič and BORA-Hansgrohe have a shot at winning the Tour de France this year? Who is your favorite team going into Florence? Let us know in the comments! We’d love to hear your predictions. ★